Certain areas of the economy, particularly housing and retail sales, have shown modest signs recently of bottoming or even turning up. The employment situation, on the other hand, continues to get worse. This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that non-farm payrolls fell by 663,000 jobs, bringing total job losses since the recession began in December 2007 to 5.1 million. The unemployment rate rose to 8.5% from the mid-4% range it had been in for most of 2006 and 2007. The real unemployment rate, which includes the long-term unemployed and those who want to work full-time but can only get part-time jobs is 16.2% or nearly 25 million Americans. At the end of January, the latest date such information is available, there were only three million job openings.
Nearly all sectors are shedding jobs, but some are faring much worse than others. Manufacturing has been in the doldrums for decades. There are fewer manufacturing jobs today than at any time since 1945 and fewer assembly line jobs than at any tine since 1938. The total number of manufacturing jobs peaked in 1979 at 19.5 million or 18.7% of the workforce. Today, there are just 12.3 manufacturing jobs or 8% of the workforce. Assembly line jobs? A mere 8.6 million. Construction employment has fallen all the way back to 1999 levels. This industry, which accounts for just 4.2% of the workforce, has lost almost 1.3 million jobs since peaking early in 2007.
How hard is it to find a job these days? Looking ahead, the Society for Human Resources Management reports that virtually no manufacturing or service firms are having difficulty filling open positions. Only 17% of manufacturing firms and 22% of service sector firms expect to increase staff this month, while 31% and 27% plan to decrease staff. A year ago, even though the recession had begun, 52% of manufacturers and 47% of service companies still planned to increase staff.
Unemployment always continues to grow even after recessions end. In fact, employment in the US historically reverts to pre-recession levels considerably faster than in other industrialized countries. A decline in unemployment insurance claims, however, would be a key leading indicator of economic improvement. Sadly, last week’s filing of 669,000 initial claims was the most since 1982. During the first quarter of 2009, nearly nine million people filed unemployment claims, almost exactly twice as many as in the first three months of 2008. And, as of last week, a record 5,728,000 were collecting unemployment, compared to 2,923,000 at the end of March 2008. Spring has begun, but it has not brought much joy with it yet.
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