Sales of existing homes increased to an annualized rate of 5.57 million units in September, the highest level since July 2007.  The bottom was an annualized rate of 4.94 million units in January.  Much of the recent increase is attributed to a rush to take advantage of the $8,000 first-time-homebuyer tax credit.  Low 30-year mortgage rates, which have averaged 5.0% the last couple of months, also spurred sales.  

The median value of the homes sold in September was $175,000, which is about the average for the year. The table below shows the average median value for the last few years:

 

Year	Price
2002	$163,900
2003	$177,100
2004	$193,200
2005	$218,200
2006	$222,000
2007	$216,600
2008	$197,200

The supply of homes for sale—that is, the inventory of unsold product—also improved.  From highs in the range of 4.5 million units, the number of unsold homes dropped to 3.6 million.   A normal level is about 2.5 million units.  

The bottom line is that home sales and values have reached a level of stability, roughly equivalent to 2002.  We believe that it will be some time before they can move substantially higher given the November 30 expiration of the homebuyer credit, the  recent rise in the 10-year UST Treasury yield (against which mortgage rates are set), and the continuing high level of unemployment.   

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