The April Employment Situation: If this isn't good news, it will have to do until the real thing comes along.
The unemployment picture showed unmistakable signs of real improvement last month. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 290,000, of which 231,000 were in the private sector. As the first chart shows, job creation at this level is indicative of sustainable economic growth.
Employment increased in sectors that had led the downturn, especially manufacturing and construction. Factory employment grew by 44,000 jobs, the largest one-month, non-strike related increase in decades. Even better news, pictured in the next chart, is the jump in the average work week to more than 40 hours for the first time in more than two years. This is a sign that employers will need to continue hiring to control overtime.
The unemployment rate inched up to 9.9%, but even this gloomy statistic contains seeds of hope. The civilian labor force jumped by 805,000 as more people were persuaded to look for work. The next chart shows the labor force participation rate. It's not where it should be, in the 62-63% range, but it's clearly on an upward trajectory.
The final chart shows most clearly and at the most human level where we really are, which is at the very beginning of a long process of job re-creation. Most economic data is reported on a "seasonally-adjusted" basis, but this chart shows the actual number of unemployed Americans, not seasonally adjusted. As you see, the number is falling, from more than 16 million in January to 14.6 million in April, but there still seven million more jobs to be created before victory can truly be declared.
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